Jan. 9, 2026
The Bill Martinez Show 01 09 26
The Bill Martinez Show 01 09 26
Transcript
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Are you ready, Yeah, Okay, let's do it.
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Ill Martinez Live a program about current events, our culture,
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our values, our politics, and our future.
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And now Bill Martinez, Hey, right now. Six minutes after
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the top they are Bill Martinez here with doctor Michael Butler.
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He is a public policy analyst and economics expert in
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the Professor of Finance at Stockton University in New Jersey.
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Doctor Butler, always good to see. Happy New Year to you.
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And happy New Year to you, Bill. Always my pleasure
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to be here.
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Well, I'm so thankful, you know, to have you here
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and have your insight, and you know, I thought, let's
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look over our shoulder just a bit and maybe, you know,
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just kind of remember you know, the highlights of twenty
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twenty five and how this is setting us up for
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you know, what Trump is declaring could be a golden
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age for America.
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And I think the golden age starts this year. I
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expect economic growth this year to be close to five
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percent and expect the inflation rate to go down to
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two percent before the.
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End of the year.
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So how do we get here? Trump gets in the
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office last January. It takes a month or two to
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figure out what he's doing. The first quarter GDP number
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when Trump just got in was negative, negative point five percent,
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So the economy declined once Trump's policies started to affect things.
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The second quarter we grew at three point eight percent,
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the third quarter four point three percent. The fourth quarter
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won't be out until February. And I'm not sure what
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the effect of the shutdown would be.
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I was going to say, this's what you got that
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to deal with it.
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Yeah, I'm not quite sure, but it also should be
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about a four percent growth now going into next year.
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Tax cuts were passed in July. They extended the tax
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cuts that were passed in twenty eighteen. Plus anybody making
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tips as it doesn't have to pay taxes, anybody working
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over time, and Social Security. Not a whole lot of
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money for the economy, but for those groups it means
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a lot, and it will tend to start to stimulate
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the economy. A couple of other things. Foreign investment in
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the US is exploding. President Trump has secured some number
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of trillions I'm not sure what it is.
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Anywhere from ten to fifteen trillion dollars. And you always
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love with Trump, you always have to kind of verify
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the numbers because he speaks in the hyperbolics, so often.
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He does exaggerate. I think it just gets a little
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enthusiastic and pumps up the numbers. But there is some
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large number of investment coming in. The biggest thing I
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think that will affect economic growth is the expensing of
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investment in a single year. In other word, exactly, if
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I buy a building last year, the IRS says you
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bought it for let's say a million dollars, you have
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to take twenty five years to recover all that capital.
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Even if I buy cars from my business, you have
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to take five years. Even computers you have to take
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three years. This year, when you make an investment, you
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can expense the entire investment in the year it's made.
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You will recover all of your capital in the year
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you invest in. That means the following year you now
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have just as much capital to invest. That should create
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an investment boom. And this is really a part of
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supply side economics. Rather than just trying to stimulate demand,
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work on increasing supply. And if you increase the supply,
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you put downward pressure on price. And if you increase
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the supply, output grows. So with all that, I expect
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output to grow perhaps as much as five percent next year,
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and the downward pressure on price will bring inflation down
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to the FEDCE target of two percent by the end
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of the year. I don't know how many tech how
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many interest rate cuts they'll have, will have a new
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FED chair. It may typically the President announces in February
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who that'll be. It'll probably most certainly will be somebody
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who favors a little more aggressive approach at bringing interest
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rates down. With all that, I expect a great year
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next year, the beginning of the golden years.
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Yeah, that is so huge, Michael. I mean to be
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able to you know, to amortize your capital investment in
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one year as opposed to you know, five or twenty
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five years. I mean, that's always kind of been absurd,
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you know for these investors. I mean you talk about
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a windfall profit, you know that is you know, for businesses,
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this is huge for them. They're going to realize the
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benefit immediately. It might take a little bit for the
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everyday consumer to benefit from that. But you know, you
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got to go to the you got to go to
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the fountain and where, you know, and you open up
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that spickett a little bit more. You know, eventually that
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starts coming down to you, doesn't it.
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Yeah, it certainly does. And one thing that we've seen
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here is Trump's tariff policy, and I think tomorrow the
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Federal the Supreme Court is going to make a decision,
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and I hope it goes in Trump's favor. Some of
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the legal experts I talked to are a little nervous
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about it. But Trump's tariffs so far have brought a
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lot of manufacturing back to the US, and that's part
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of the reason why these companies in other countries are
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investing in the US to avoid the tariffs. So that
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should help with manufacturing, help grow the economy. And so
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far it has had no impact at all on inflation.
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Inflation was two point nine percent when Trump entered office.
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It did dip down a little bit, but then went
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up again. Last month it dropped down to two point
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seven because energy prices are falling significantly. Oil is down
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to about fifty six to fifty seven dollars a barrel.
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I expected to be well under fifty five dollars a barrel,
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perhaps as low as fifty dollars a barrel before the
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end of the year. That will translate into gasoline of
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two dollars and fifty cents a gallon, which hes all Americans,
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and it also lowers energy costs for business to produce output.
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Lowering their cost also puts downward pressure on prices. I
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am extremely optimistic about the economy for this year.
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Yeah, it's amazing, Michael. Those that you know just were, boy,
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they were just up and down about tariffs, that it
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was going to have such a negative impact on inflation
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and all that, and it didn't happen. And it's like,
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you know what, you're not really good at what you do.
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I mean, you kind of really missed it, right, Yeah.
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So the traditional view is at least was a tariff
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adds to the cost of the product, just like you
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put a tax on it. If you're adding to the
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cost of the the price of the product has to
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go up. Now, why didn't that happen. A couple of reasons. One,
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most of these suppliers are absorbing the tariff and not
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passing it on to consumers, right, Yeah.
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A lot of that.
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Has to do with consumers. We have an inflation problem.
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If you try to continue to push prices up, consumers
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will look for alternatives and they'll resist some of the
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price increase, so that helped to keep any inflationary impact
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of tariffs really down to negligible amounts. And the whole
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tariff policy. I'm a free market economist. When he first
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announced it, I was a little leering myself, but as
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you take a look at all the pluses, and there
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are some negatives, but the pluses far out weigh the
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minuses here and this has been very positive. I hope
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the Supreme Court allows him to continue to do this
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a point. Not only economically does it make sense, but
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Trump ran around to all these countries that were fighting
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each other and said, look.
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Exactly, I'm gonna fighting. I'm gonna put these big tariffs on.
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All the fighting is not all stopped, but it's on
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its way way down. All positive effects of this twer
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policy well.
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And the thing is, of course, by the time this airs,
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because we're recording this before it and you know, the
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decision from the Supreme Court may come down. But I'm
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with you, hopefully they side with Trump on this. If not,
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I got to think that Donald Trump may have an
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ace up his sleeve or you know, Plan B to
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protect you know what he's negotiated, because if the Supreme
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Court unwinds this without any plan B that could be
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That could be a problem, Michael, it.
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Could be a disasters.
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Over three hundred billion dollars has been collected so far
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from tariff revenue and that will.
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Go to reduce the deficit or trying to get the
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deficit down.
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The Republicans have put together a plan that will call
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for a balanced budget. I believe within five years the
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tariff revenue will help that. So it's very important that
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the Supreme Court let the President be free.
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To do what he has to do to make deals.
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If only some of the Democrats would see, like John
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Fetterman and others would see what the president is doing
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and how the outcomes are very positive. And if you
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focus on outcomes, whatever policy you're putting in, you have
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arguments of that, but focus on the outcomes. What's the
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final result of these policies.
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It's all positive, exactly.
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We have to encourage that one hundred percent got to
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go to break more from doctor Butler, stay with us.
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Eight hundred eight one seven one four five two. Eight
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hundred eight one seven one four five two. That's eight
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hundred eight one seven fourteen fifty two.
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Eight hundred four to three nine one five eight eight,
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eight hundred four to three nine one five eight eight,
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eight hundred four to three nine one five eight eight.
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That's eight hundred four to three nine fifteen eighty eight.
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This vacation offer is so good I'm going to repeat it.
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If you're in your forties, fifties, sixties, even up to
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the eighties, some support of Ionta Mexico for sixties all meals,
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include it for all two ninety nine. Again, come to
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Port of Iart in Mexico, all meals, all drinks to
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ninety nine. We'll even give you a free cruiser land
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package if you're one of the first fifty people to
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call right now. Again, come to Port of Iart in
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Mexico for only two ninety nine, be one of the
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first fifty people to book right now at our luxurious
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all inclusive resort. If you're in your forties, fifties, sixties,
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even up to the eighties, you deserve a great vacation,
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So take it right now. Port i Art in Mexico,
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well now, and get a free cruiser land package on
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top of your trip.
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Eight hundred ninety five nine seven oh two oh eight
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hundred ninety five nine seven oh two oh, eight hundred
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ninety five nine seven oh two oh. That's eight hundred
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ninety five, nine seventy twenty.
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Everything is expensive right now, gas, food, you name it.
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You're spending more, you are making the same or less money.
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So what do you do.
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You rack up credit card debt. That's what you do.
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It's not your fault, it's the economy. And guess what.
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If you rack up too much credit card debt, like
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some of us, you can't pay your bills. Then the
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credit card companies, as nice as they are, start hounding
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you for money. Then you start your downward spiral. A
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smart thing for you to do is to call the
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Zero Debt They can help you consolidate all your credit
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